I am thrilled to share that our contribution, “Evolution and determinants of firm-level systemic risk in local production networks,” was awarded Best Lightning Talk at NetSci 2026.
It was a privilege to present this work in the Amesbury Ballroom, and I’m incredibly proud of the team’s effort in tackling such a relevant challenge in urban and economic science.
About the Research
Recent crises—from the COVID-19 pandemic to shifting geopolitical landscapes—have exposed the fragility of global supply chains. Our research aimed to move beyond static risk assessments to understand how firms dynamically rewire their supply links to build resilience.
By analyzing the Hungarian production network from 2015 to 2022, we explored:
- The Dynamics of Resilience: Using a stripe-corrected gravity model as a null benchmark, we observed how the Economic Systemic Risk Index (ESRI) shifted post-pandemic. Our findings suggest that the adaptive behavior of firms post-2020 led to a more resilient economy than what was predicted by equilibrium models.
- Structural Shifts: We identified a fundamental change in the “key players” of the economy—those firms that facilitate essential economic exchanges became significantly more critical during the crisis, a structural transformation not captured by our null model.
- Trade Drivers: Our regression analysis highlights the dual role of international trade, where imports and exports exert opposing pressures on local systemic risk, complicating the narrative around trade disruption.
Read the Paper
For those interested in the deeper technical methodology and full analysis, the paper is available on arXiv:
Title: Evolution and determinants of firm-level systemic risk in local production networks
Authors: Anna Mancini, Balázs Lengyel, Riccardo Di Clemente, Giulio Cimini
Link: arXiv:2506.21426
A huge thank you to the organizers of NetSci 2026 and to everyone who stopped by the session.
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